COP 28 & COP 29: Climate Changes and Pakistan's Vulnerabilities:

COP 29: A Global Call for Climate Action:

The 29th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 29) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is poised to be a critical gathering for addressing climate change. Scheduled for 2024, COP 29 comes at a pivotal time as the world faces intensifying climate impacts, from rising global temperatures to increasingly frequent and severe natural disasters. This conference serves as a platform where world leaders, negotiators, scientists, and civil society converge to take stock of the progress made and set new goals for climate action.

Key Objectives of COP 29:

COP 29 is expected to focus on accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement, the landmark international accord adopted at COP 21 in 2015. The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to keep it below 1.5°C. With the effects of climate change becoming more pronounced, COP 29 will likely emphasize stronger national commitments, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

One of the central themes is likely to be the urgency of climate finance, particularly for developing nations that are disproportionately affected by climate change. Wealthier nations will be expected to honor their commitments to provide financial support for climate adaptation and mitigation in vulnerable countries. This includes funding for green technologies, disaster resilience, and sustainable infrastructure.

Global Challenges:

The road to COP 29 is not without challenges. Despite growing awareness of the climate crisis, global emissions continue to rise in many regions, and there remains a significant gap between countries’ current climate pledges and what is required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, geopolitical tensions, economic inequalities, and energy security concerns—exacerbated by global events like the war in Ukraine—could complicate negotiations.

Climate activists are likely to push for more aggressive timelines, as many countries, particularly in the Global South, are already experiencing the adverse effects of climate inaction. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and threats to biodiversity are no longer hypothetical future risks but present-day realities for millions around the world.

Looking Ahead:

COP 29 represents an opportunity for the international community to take decisive, collective action to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. It is crucial that this conference results in tangible commitments and concrete policies that accelerate the global transition to renewable energy, promote sustainable development, and ensure climate justice for all nations.

The success of COP 29 will depend on the willingness of all parties to cooperate, compromise, and prioritize the planet’s future.

Facts and Figures on Current Climate Catastrophe:

A glance at the Anthropogenic activities and Existing Climate Protocols:

1. The most destructive event of the year was a twin earthquake with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5 that struck southern Turkey near the Syrian border on February 6 2023. An estimated 14 million people, representing 16 percent of Turkey's population, were affected. Confirmed deaths totaled 50,783 in Turkey and 8,476 in Syria.
2. On September 8, a magnitude 6.8 earthquake struck western Morocco, killing at
least 2,900 people and wounding 5,500. 
3. A magnitude 6.3 earthquake rocked western Afghanistan on October 7. It was followed by another magnitude 6.3 earthquake four days later and a magnitude 6.4
earthquake on October 15, killing almost 3,000. 
4. Typhoon Doksuri caused significant rainfall and flooding throughout at least 16 cities and provinces in northeastern China on July 29 causing loss of 15.7 bns to Chinese Economy.

5. In September, October and November, storms also caused flooding in Mexico, Hong Kong and Western Europe.
6. Mediterranean Storm Daniel passed across eastern Libya, leaving a path of devastation.

7. The Horn of Africa only slowly emerging from a devastating drought that left millions hungry also experienced heavy rainfall and floods linked to the El Nino weather phenomenon. The flash floods in November killed dozens of people and caused large-scale displacement in Kenya, as well as Somalia and Ethiopia.

8. Record droughts caused river levels to fall and other water bodies to dry up across 8 various parts of the world, including the Amazon rainforest.

 9. Eruption of Mount Merapi volcano in Central Java province, Indonesia, on March
13, 2023. 

10. Drinking water supplies have plunged to their lowest level since 1990 due to
extreme drought in Catalonia. 

11.A wildfire burns at the Dadia National Park in the region of Evros, Greece, on September 1, 2023.

12. At least 100 elephants died in the country's largest national park due to drought, their decaying carcasses a grisly sign of what wildlife authorities and conservation groups say is the impact of climate change and the El Nino weather phenomenon.

13. Heavy rains in July and August caused three eastern rivers of the Indus Basin the Sutlej, Chenab and Beas - to flood.

A glance at the Anthropogenic activities and Existing Climate Protocols: 

Key Takeaways of COP 28: (Attended by 140 Head of States, 70000 participants, and 5000 media personals)

1. The World First Global Stock take concluded.
2. 1st  time global leaders agreed to establish a fund paid by developed countries, to support the lower income countries.
3. Expedite the transition to renewable energy resources and reducing greenhouse greenhouse emissions. 200 countries have reached a consensus on fresh climate accord.
4. Methane reduction through "Global Methane Pledge". framework supporting nations to take action to collectively reduce methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030 A pledge is voluntary.
5. 134 Countries signed COP28 Declaration on Food and Agriculture to help strengthen food systems, build resilience to climate change, reduce global emissions, and contribute to the global fight against Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). aligned with the UN.

Controversies relevant to COP 28:

1. The main point of contention was the of the fund by the World Bank. Developed countries were in the favor, while developing countries argued this would skew the balance of power towards wealthy governments and make it hard to tap into the funding. China and 677 countries preferred an independent loss and damage fund under the regulations of UN. 

2. The affluent countries have committed a collective sum slightly exceeding $700 million to the loss and damage fund. This amount represents less than 0.2% of the irreversible and non-economic losses that developing countries endure annually due to climate change. According to UNEP, developing countries require 215 bn to 387 bn $ to effectively adapt to climate change.

3. The host country is the largest producer of oil and gas. UAE currently pumps 4 million barrels of oil and gas per day and plans to expand it 5 million barrels.

4. The President of COP 28, Dr Sultan Ahmad Al Jaber, the CEO of State oil Giant Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The situation raises glaring conflict of interests. ADNOC intends to boos oil production by 50% by 2030.

Pakistan and COP 28:

PM Kakar unveiled historic Recharge Pakistan Initiative. The ambitious seven years, $8 million project aims to achieve the following goals:
Lehri; Recharge Pakistan will maximize flood reduction benefits to vulnerable communities.
b) Create an enabling environment for climate action in Pakistan: Recharge Pakistan will promote integrated strategies, planning, and policymaking that make ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure a vital part of Pal National Water Policy, National Adaptation Plan, and Provincial Adaptation With well-documented procedures backed by a rigorous scientific base the Government of Pakistan can channel future investments into ecosystem adaptation and green infrastructure interventions to complement its exist infrastructure network.
c) Enhance community resilience in Pakistan's Indus Basin: Recharge Pakistan will introduce farmers to agricultural practices that can better withstand future climate scenarios and support small businesses in providing alternative revenue generating opportunities. The project will also reduce ecosystem degradation from the traditional livelihoods directly dependent upon natural resources.

a) Demonstrate the effectiveness of ecosystem-based adaptation and green infrastructure: By restoring degraded forests in DI Khan district, restoring flow paths in Ramak Watershed and Manchar Lake (Qambar Shahdadkot District), and building green infrastructure projects in DI Khan, Ramak, Manchar, and Chakar.

What are the Challenges in Implementing Climate Protocols?

Climate Politics: 

The great power geo political rivalry between US and China is evident. While the U.S. has experienced policy shifts between administrations, China has made substantial commitments to peak its emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.

Deep Seated Interests of Fossil Fuel Lobby: 

The world's five largest publically owned oil and gas companies reportedly spend 200 million dollars annualy to lobby against efforts to address climate change. In COP 27 at Sharam ul Sheikh, they had more delegates than the combined delegation of the 10 most affected countries. An article published in the Guardian revealed that Willie Soon, a climate change denier and a prominent researcher at Harvard Smithson Center of Astrophysics, had his work funded almost entirely by the fossil fuel lobby, receiving more than 1.2 million dollars.

Climate Funding Issues:

Great powers are reluctant to share their due financing owing to global economic meltdown and nationalist agendas. Flawed Climate Funding Mechanisms In International Protocols.

Pakistan's Vulnerabilities to Climate Change:

1. Pakistan is ranked globally 8th in vulnerability to climate change.
2. The country holds 23rd position in the Inform Risk Index, signifying high disaster risk among 191 countries.
3. 30 million people are affected by climate disasters since 2010.
4. Estimated 1.4 degree centigrade to 3.7degree centigrade temperature increase by 2060
5. Increased frequency of rainfall and snowfall
6. Estimated 30 cm to 80 cm rise in sea levels by 2100
7. Floods in 2022 inflicted 33 bn$ losses to Pakistan's economy and displacement of 3 million people was evident.

Initiatives Taken by Pakistan in Combating Climate Change:

1. Going to devise new Climate oriented budget on IMF recommendations
2. Ten Billion Tree Tsunami Project and Urban Forest Project in mega cities 
3. Pakistan's Decades of Dam Project. These include, Diamer Bhasha Dam, Mohmand Dam, along with three hydropower projects.
4. Adoption of Climate Smart agricultural practices i.e. climate resilient crops, investing in agriculture R&D.
 5. Pakistan's National Determined Contributions: 1st one is reduction of 20% GHG emissions. Pakistan already reduced 8.7% between 2018 to 2022. 2nd is exploiting the potential of Blue economy.3rd is renewable energy up t to 50 by 2030. Electric vehicles 30% by 2030.

6. Ravi River Front Urban Development Project: 

7. National Climate Change Policy 2021.
8. Living Indus Initiative: 
9. National Clean Air Policy.
 Air pollution causes 235000 premature deaths in 2022 alone. The policy deals with five major areas: transportation, Industry, Agriculture, Waste, and Residential areas.
10. US Pakistan Green Alliance Framework: 
4.5 million dollars project to strengthen agriculture sector by increasing fertilizers efficiency and effectiveness of local farmer. 5 lac dollars project to restore electricity infrastructure in the flood hit areas of southern Sindh.
11. Pakistan's Climate Change Action Plan 2021-2025:
 Energy Decarbonization, Sustainable Agriculture, Macro Fiscal Sustainability. 
12. Establishment of Punjab Anti Smog Plan: 
13. Anti Smog task force. Ban on brick kilns.

14. 40 thousand hectars planned city, 6 million trees, six water treatment plants, an urban forest three barrages. It is a five trillion Rs project.

15. 17 bn $ initiative government, UN Donor, private sector. Restoration of ecological health of the Indus. 90% of Pakistanis are residing in Indus Basin. Nature based interventions.

Way Forward:

1. Reforestation and afforestation measures.
2. Strict regulation of industries and use of pollution control technologies.
 3. Implementation of the concept of Sustainable cities.
4. Environmental campaigns.
5. Implementation of Environmental Protocols along with SDGs.
 6. Transition from non-renewable to renewable energy resources.